Sudan: Into Uncharted Territory

By William Minter | 9 March 2009

“Sudan has entered uncharted waters as a result of the ICC [International Criminal Court] arrest warrant against President Omar al Bashir. And indeed it is a nothing less than roll of the dice, a gamble with unknown consequences. Yesterday marks a turning point. We cannot say for sure in which direction Sudan will turn but there are many reasons to be fearful.” - Alex de Waal

Other analysts may disagree with de Waal about the wisdom of the ICC indictment, but no one can contest his observation that it is a turning point. Human rights advocates may celebrate the declaration that impunity will not stand, but they must also consider that it may in practice be an empty or even counterproductive gesture. The question is what next? Some, acknowledging that Bashir will not actually stand trial, see the indictment as an opportunity for increased pressure and compromises to come.

Even so, there is no sign that the world (or the Obama administration in particular) is ready for the complex mix of pressure and diplomacy that would be necessary to give peace a chance, or to protect the people of Darfur, when even the existing UN force in Darfur is far under strength.

This AfricaFocus Bulletin contains reflections on the new situation after the ICC indictment from Alex de Waal, the International Crisis Group, and the Enough Project. It also contains talking points from Africa Action stressing the imperative for the Obama administration to integrate policy on Darfur into a coherent approach on Sudan.

Additional analyses and updates from the various points of view in the statements included here can be found on the respective websites: http://www.ssrc.org/blogs/darfur/category/darfur/, http://www.crisisgroup.org, http://www.enoughproject.org, and http://www.africaaction.org

For previous AfricaFocus Bulletins on Sudan, and additional background links, see
http://www.africafocus.org/country/sudan.php

For regular updates on Sudan see http://allafrica.com/sudan, http://www.sudantribune.com, and http://www.reliefweb.int

Originally posted on AfricaFocus